Unsigned Picks in Unsettling Circumstances

     John Clayton's July 9th blog (http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=clayton_john) about the state of pre-camp signings portends more possible trouble for the Falcons organization leading into training camp on July 25.  Clayton explains that agents trying to get pre-camp signings for first and second round draft picks have encountered what the military calls a snafu.  Without getting too down and dirty, the sticking point in contract talks regards a rule that regulates increases in rookie salaries to 25 per cent, annually.  Agents have made a practice exploiting a loophole in this rule that allows bonus money to be guaranteed for the final year of a contract in a lump sum.  This protects players who bust out of the NFL before their contract expires and helps players who outperform the built-in strictures of their contracts.  However, with the CBA ending in 2011, first and second round picks--who typically sign contracts of four, five, or six years--can't be guaranteed any money because there is no framework in place to do so.  The bottom line: we're at an impasse.    

For the Falcons, this development could be particularly terrible.  The Falcons' front office has been aggressive with draft picks this offseason, signing all of them before the start of camp, with the exception of first rounder Sam Baker and second round linebacker Curtis Lofton.  Maybe you see where this is heading.  If this late development in negotiations holds Lofton and Baker out of camp, the entire rebuilding project takes a step backward.      

Lofton's presence in the middle of the defense was going to let Keith Brooking move back to his Pro Bowl position at the weakside.  That tweak alone in the defense will make a huge difference in stopping the run, since Lofton is a bruiser and the undersized Brooking can move back to stopping speedy rushers from turning the corner.  In addition Lofton's ball skills will work well in the Cover-2 scheme being installed.  However, if a training camp holdout results in Lofton's extended absence, possibly keeping him off the field through part or all of the regular season, the defense will likely revert to the same starting LB corps from last year, leaving Brooking out of place, and the entire rest of the LB corps with him.    

Sam Baker, on the other hand, is supposed to be Matt Ryan's best friend; the tackle out of USC is supposed to be protecting Matt Ryan's blind side.  Everybody knows he has short arms, and so everybody expected a rough transition to the pro game to begin with.  Some people don't think Baker will start until after the bye.  But if he's a no-show in camp, the question has to be asked:  Will Baker see the field at all?  While a season on the bench might give Baker a chance to devote more attention to that fine palette of mountain-man face-hair he's been cultivating, it would seriously hurt the Falcons' attempts to rebuild a battered franchise.  If Baker's going to be a tackle in the NFL, he needs the opportunity to be a tackle in the NFL.  I know a lot of us really are pulling for the beard, but it's time to weigh costs against benefits, people.    

The basic premise of drafting football players is that you have to hit on your early picks--you have to hit on your late round picks, too (at least some), but if you miss on those impact players, it's a major setback.  Well, the Falcons stockpiled draft picks this year, did some maneuvering, and got three guys that were those impact players.  These players need to be hits—all of them.  But unless the Falcons front office steps up one more time to get something done, Baker and Lofton may not get to hit anything at all on Sundays.